Scientific Uncertainty and Public Policy

Today I got to hear Henry Pollack speak as part of the John L. Rich lecture series in the Geology department.

Dr. Pollack is Geological Sciences Department at the University of Michigan and has recently written a book called "Scientific Uncertainty and Public Policy - Moving on Without All the Answers."

In his lecture he talked about the role of scientific uncertainty in the making of public policy, and how we will never have all the answers at the level that would make public policy clear and perfect. Rather, public policy is an example of an evolving system in a highly uncertain environment.

Therefore public policy should be approached with the mindset of reducing uncertainty through action. We are never going to have all the information to make a perfect decision, but we will always have some information and we should move ahead and make the best decision that is possible. Of course this opens the process up to failure, but the process should be dynamic, always being evaluated and being improved, obviously we shouldn't continue with policy that does not work...

at this point point Dr. Pollack said...

"staying the course usually leads to digging deeper trenches,"

... which I thought insightful and kind of funny.

But at the same time, we shouldn't sit around on our hands and say we can't make decisions because we don't have all the data... this argument is an implicit endorsement of the status quo.

As I was leaving Braunstein I began to think about how Dr. Pollack's lecture was applicable to my spiritual life as well. How often do I feel God directing me to do something, yet I wait for more information, for Him to define things more clearly, to give me some kind of confirmation. Maybe I should be approaching my walk with God with the mindset of reducing uncertainty through action... by acting in faith I will grow in my understanding of God and his will for my life.

So what does God have in store for me now?